Brexit and the Economy

We certainly can blame the Brexit leading to dramatic deterioration in economic activity, not seen since the aftermath of the financial crisis. We have been prepared few months before the Brexit happened so we cannot say we are not prepared. Even the Bank of England was cautious and prepared for such an event.

The pound fell soon after, but picked up quickly, and now it is falling again. Exports have been picked up by the falling pound. Post Brexit slump costs Easyjet £40m due to the falling pound. Both manufacturing and service sectors saw a decline in output and orders. The business activity could be higher or lower than a month ago. Manufacturing activity also could be higher or lower than a month ago. But they still can fluctuate for many months if not stabilised. We could have continued record slump.

All this is home grown due to the Brexit, and is meant to be short term. The economy will not right itself in the coming months.

We are already heading for recession with the government borrowing at over £1 trillion pounds in spite of a lower deficit. There will be long term uncertainty, as the deep seated problem is stalling or delaying the invoking of Article 50.

I am certain that invoking the Article 50 now will trigger stability in the markets, in businesses and manufacturing. Any economic impact will then become short term, and will be on the new road to prosperity enabling to do more trade with other countries as well as Europe, but not with the European Union.

A lot of businesses have been more successful in relocating to countries such as Russia, and they feel more safe and secure there. This shows that [EU] Exit is working well. [This was because of sanctions].

I have predicted that there will be turmoil in the Brexit economy which is why I have as democracy invoked Article 50, the day after Brexit. This invoked Article 50 still needs to be confirmed by the Prime Minister. The invoked Article 50 is still there and secure, even if the Prime Minister refuse to invoke the Article 50.

The Prime Minister can take all the time in the world, and start negotiations but only after invoking the Article 50. And not before.

Political Adviser, Expert and Economist.